Climate Change and Coping strategies in Africa ( by Mayibongwe Mabanda)

Introduction

Climate change is one of humanity’s greatest challenges, affecting both current and future generations. Without urgent and concerted action, it will damage fragile ecosystems, impede development efforts, increase risks to public health, frustrate poverty alleviation programs, and force large-scale migration from water or food-scarce regions. The environmental, economic, and social costs of inaction will far exceed the cost of taking immediate steps to address climate change.

Climate is usually defined as the "average weather" in a place. It includes patterns of temperature, precipitation (rain or snow), humidity, wind and seasons. Climate patterns play a fundamental role in shaping natural ecosystems, and the human economies and cultures that depend on them. But the climate we’ve come to expect is not what it used to be, because the past is no longer a reliable predictor of the future. Our climate is rapidly changing with disruptive impacts, and that change is progressing faster than any seen in the last years.

Conceptualisation of terms

Climate change is approached by dealing with the three sides from which the danger comes which are global warming, increasing climate variability, meteorological and climatology extreme events. According to African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development (2006) these are the three panels of this triptych review. The second panel starts with a compelling review of the present situation of food security, referring to African examples to improve the situation. Then the influence is discussed that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has an increasing climate variability as a consequence of climate change. It is indicated that, to date, climate models have been developed with little knowledge of agricultural systems dynamics. On the other hand one can illustrate that agricultural policy analysis has been conducted with little knowledge of climate dynamics.

Climate change, can be referred to as global warming, according to Conway (2010), this is the rise in average surface temperatures on Earth. An overwhelming scientific consensus maintains that climate change is due primarily to the human use of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the air. The gases trap heat within the atmosphere, which can have a range of effects on ecosystems, including rising sea levels, severe weather events, and droughts that render landscapes more susceptible to wildfires. The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) acknowledges climate change as one of the factors affecting rural poverty and as one of the challenges it needs to be addressed. While climate change is a global phenomenon, its negative impacts are more severely felt by poor people in developing countries who rely heavily on the natural resource base for their livelihoods. Rural poor communities rely greatly for their survival on agriculture and livestock keeping that are amongst the most climate-sensitive economic sectors.

 The primary cause of climate change is the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil and coal, which emits greenhouse gases into the atmosphere primarily carbon dioxide. Other human activities, such as agriculture and deforestation, also contribute to the proliferation of greenhouse gases that cause climate change. Pitts (1996), argues that due to climate change droughts and floods are destroying especially the crops and harvest of farmers in developing countries, leaving them in a miserable situation and threatening their livelihood. As in most of the African countries, the majority of the workforce for example in Ghana (almost 60%) is working in the agricultural sector but contributes just a little percentage to the national GDP. Most of the farmers are living in abject poverty, struggling with life and just managing to survive by scraping for a living through multiple informal economic activities. These of course mean an immense toll in the livelihoods of families, especially those in the rural areas.

Impact of climate change

 Impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Farmers in Africa are currently the most vulnerable to climate variability. Scenario analysis also shows that maize production in Southern Africa will be positively affected by climate change under both low-input and irrigated management systems. According to Malhi & Wright (2004), droughts and floods, out-of-season rain and dry spells are affecting the welfare of millions of people. The suspected root of the problem, climate change, is a reality for the people of Africa. These and many other changes have led to unreliable farming seasons and low water supplies. Amisah (2007) et al pointed out that the governments and other stakeholders at all levels are working out various mitigation and adaptation responses with varied implications for different sections of the population. The adaptation measures, which seek to reduce the vulnerability and build the resilience of people to climate change are necessary and critical given the growing effects of climate change.

As a direct consequence of capricious behaviour of particularly rainfall in West Africa, the adaptation of its farmers has lagged behind enormously. This statement is valid for most farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Within the climate science community there is an emerging effort to make findings more suitable for decision making, but as yet there is little consensus as to how data may be relied upon for decision making. Then a lot of attention is paid to how response farming, that is thoroughly defined, can play an important role in coping with the consequences of climate variability. Response farming is often limited envisaging rainfall events, but coping with weather and climate disasters as well as using windows of weather and climate opportunities are other forms of responding to weather and climate realities. Services such as advice on design rules on above and below ground micro-climate management or manipulation, with respect to any appreciable microclimatic improvement: shading, wind protection, mulching, other surface modification, drying, storage, frost protection belong to such “response farming” agro meteorological services. Ideally, to get optimal preparations, farmers get advisories/services through extension intermediaries.

How farmers in Africa are surviving with the phenomenon of climate change

To survive the consequences of climate change farmers in Africa have adopted measures to reduce climate change. According to Conant and Paustian (2002), in Ghana, the traditional and local authorities identified clearing of riparian vegetation as a major factor increasing soil erosion and siltation of rivers, which eventually reduces stream flow, and they are adopting measures to remedy the situation. The measures include creating awareness of the effects of deforestation around water bodies, sensitizing the communities about prevention of bush fires, promoting community-based management of forests and imposing fines on those who indiscriminately set fire to the forests, clear riparian vegetation or violate other measures to protect the environment. However, According to Cohen et al (2002) these efforts by the traditional authorities are not yielding notable results because the communities, although still rural in terms of development and infrastructure, have become more cosmopolitan or heterogeneous and no longer adhere as absolutely to traditional authority as they did in the past. The communal nature of the communities is breaking down; people now tend to be more concerned with individual than with collective well-being.

In addition, most farmers recognized the importance of having trees on their farms to shade their crops from intense sunshine. However growing trees had little appeal to them because they had had negative experiences with timber companies and illegal chainsaw loggers trampling their crops. Sustained awareness programmes are needed to inform rural farmers of their rights and to empower them to protect their farms and most importantly to plant more trees. Ghana Environmental Protection Agency (2000) argues that responses to climate change include adaptation to reduce the vulnerability of people and ecosystems to climatic changes which is all activities that help people and ecosystems reduce their vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change and minimize the costs of natural disasters. There is no one-size-fits-all solution for adaptation and mitigation, to reduce the magnitude of climate change impact in the long term. According to Werf, (2008), mitigation activities are designed to reduce the sources and enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases in order to limit the negative effects of climate change.

Also, in Africa farmers are adapting to this constraint by planting different or various crops. According to Brooks (2006), crops that thrive well under the current prevailing conditions are increasingly being planted in areas that previously did not support their cultivation. For example in Kenya, there is a shift from cocoa cultivation to drought-resistant crops such as cassava. Vegetable growers are also gradually moving into the river plains where their crops can get more water. These are forms of adaptation techniques but are obviously not sustainable. Cocoa crops, for example, were previously a major source of income for the upkeep of the farmers’ families, for the purchase of agricultural inputs and for expansion of their farms. The clearing of riparian vegetation and the use of agricultural chemicals close to the rivers and streams create hazards for the environment and ultimately for the people of the region.

Farmers in Africa have developed several strategies to adapt to this phenomenon. One is to re-use water, for example from washing clothes or utensils, to irrigate backyard gardens and nurseries. Households are also rationing water, trying to reduce the water use per person per day. However, the practice is abandoned as soon as the rains begin. This strategy needs to be part of a behavioral change and not applied only during periods of water shortage. Also according to, Nicholas (2009), most communities are actively reviving rainwater harvesting, a traditional way (Indigenous Knowledge Systems) of collecting and storing rainwater in big barrels placed under the roofs of houses. This practice had largely been abandoned when the communities installed wells and boreholes, but has attracted interest again as a result of their drying up. However most of the communities covered in the study reported that they are unable to harvest enough rainfall under the current climate.

There is  use of media to adopt climate change, the 'Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA) is also funding research into using the media to enhance climate change adaptation. According to Human Development Report 2007, one project, led by the African Radio Drama Association, will commence in Nigeria, where there is a need to produce and disseminate information that will help smallholder farmers adapt their farming methods. For example in Nigeria Radio broadcasts produced locally in two local Nigerian languages, with scripts available in English and French informing smallholder farmers of climate change adaptation measures and strengthen their capacity to mitigate the impact on their livelihoods.

In  Africa farmers had started crop diversification and seeding small businesses so as to survive the consequences of climate change. They are also producing income that is not linked to the rain cycles. According to Windfuhr et al (2008), In Kenya, one-thousand-dollar loans were made to groups of women who have started small businesses for example an egg hatchery, a paraffin shop and even a small lending bank. The bank's loans helped families pay for emergency health care and food purchases during the drought. Bals-Christoph et al. (2008) argues that it is a way of diversification, so people are not just relying on farm income for survival.

Furthermore, there is also an arid lands program that takes root. According to Bohnenberger and Burck, (2011) in 2006, a group of non-governmental organizations, funded by a grant from the Global Environment Facility, Norway and the Netherlands implemented the measures that would alleviate today's current climate stresses. They also recruited people who work with Kenya's World Bank-funded arid lands program, to help. Since then, farming practices there have changed dramatically. According to the UNEP, (2006), due to this programme Agricultural Extension Officers now offer seasonal and locally relevant climate predictions explained in simple terms in the regional tribal language. They are now producing a handbook to translate weather predictions into practical advice about what and when to plant. For example, if rains are not plentiful, there are seeds with a 90-day growing cycle that might survive where higher-yielding 130-day varieties would not. The project has also helped farmers set up a seed bank. A group of about 40 men will collect, process and preserve the best local seeds and loan them out again during the next planting season, slowly selecting them for the best climate-adapted varieties. Now, farmers can circumvent the expensive seed market, where they can't even tell if they are getting the seed varieties they are paying for. A total reliance on maize also is a big part of the current problems. More often now farmers are hedging their bets. Increasingly, they are diversifying their crops by planting more drought-tolerant grains, peas and beans.

In a nutshell, climate change affects all countries in the world. Extreme weather conditions like drought and floods have become more intense and more frequent, with far reaching destructive effects on the livelihoods of people, especially those in developing countries and more so those in climate sensitive economic activities like agriculture. All categories of agricultural workers are therefore affected. But however farmers in Africa had come up with several strategies to survive the consequences of climate change, these include growing of drought resistance crops, Crop diversification and seeding small businesses and water reuse just to mention a few.

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Brooks, N. (2006). Climate Change, Drought and Pastoralism in the Sahel:Discussion note

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effects of Climate Change on Forage and Livestock Production and Assessment of Adaptation Strategies on the Canadian Prairies,”University of Saskatchewan: Saskatoon.

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implications for detecting change at different scales.” In Environmental Pollution.

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Rural Poverty and Rural Policy Issues ( by Verenga Themba)

The process of development has been preached by numerous authorities and politicians since time immemorial. However, the development process of rural areas was relatively slower than that of the urban areas. This was a result of the fact that, development practitioners and governments have been prioritising the urban areas at the expense of rural areas. Of recent, statesmen and organisations started introducing policies and strategies to solve the plight of the non-metropolitan dwellers. However, rural poverty is still evident. This is because, some if not all of these policies are formulated, implemented and analysed without necessarily taking into consideration some of the factors which affect the formulation, implementation and analysis of good policies. These factors include the available technology, the power relations and participation of different stakeholders involved in policy process and a plethora of other social economic and political factors which affect good policy analysis, formulation and implementation. Without understanding these factors, rural policies are formulated and implemented in a way which hardly solve or at least alleviate rural poverty. This paper shall explore how these factors affect the assumption analysis and its consequences and influences to rural poverty reduction at large. Examples of the policies implemented in both the Third and the First World shall be used to substantiate the raised arguments.

A policy is a declaration that defines the intention of a community, organisation or government goals and priorities. Policies outline the roles, rules and procedures. They create frameworks within which administration and staff can perform their assigned duties. (Anderson et al, 1984). Policy process is a cyclical and iterative procedure which includes problem identification, problem analysis, policy making, budgeting and policy evaluation (Sabatier, 1999). With this rural policy process means all the iterative policy making, analysis and adoption put in place to solve the problems of rural poor people. Burke (2003) defines assumption analysis as a project management exercise that requires planners to identify all assumptions being made in project planning management stage as a means of risk reduction. Each assumption is then analysed to determine its accuracy and to identify all potential project risks if the assumption is later found to be inaccurate. This shows that for, accurate and project success to be achieved there is need for rural policies to be well analysed at each and every stage, that is from problem identification, problem analysis, strategy selection implementation, monitoring and evaluation.

The rural policy process is ideally occupied by diverse groups of actors and stakeholders. Presence or absence of these actors in the analysis, implementation, evaluation and formulation of policies has influence towards the success of a policy process. According to Sabatier (1999) the rural policy process has to involve a wide range of actors, individuals, groups and networks. These groups and individuals may complement one another in each and every stage of the policy process. In the rural policy, stakeholders including the government agencies, Civic Society Organisations (CSOs), Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs) and the rural people contribute their knowledge towards the elimination of poverty in rural areas. Government agencies can contribute its information through the stored data in different ministries, NGOs contribute the knowledge and experience they get when they come into direct contact with the rural poor people. The rural, poor people also express their lived experiences. This collaborative action of stakeholders ensures effective sharing of information and data thereby accurate understanding and analysis of rural development problems. According to Munzara and Gwaze (2006) a workshop organised by community Technology Development Trust (Zimbabwe) and Centre for Environmental Policy and Advocacy (Malawi) was attended by participants from countries like Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. These stakeholders who included government officials and representatives from NGOs successfully deliberated on trade issues because of their diverse experiences. This is because all these stakeholders were targeting formulation of the rural policy to alleviate rural poverty. These actors if they mutually work in policy problem identification and analysis for instance complement each other and thereby identify the correct problem which rural people are grappling with.

Participation and power dynamics among the rural stakeholders also impact on the assumption analysis of the rural policy process. In most cases, there is a tendency of exclusion of other relevant stakeholders during the rural policy process. In this case there, the more powerful stakeholders may decide to exclude less powerful ones when formulating, analysing and implementing policies. According to Chambers (1983) when identifying the problems affecting rural areas, governments usually ignore and overlook essential, complex and diverse realities of the rural poor people. With this, the government and its agencies take the centre stage in identification, analysis and evaluation of rural development policy problems. This in most cases lead to the identification of wrong problems for right people. This is because, social phenomena are very complex and multifaceted which means that, those in the problem (rural people) should be at the centre stage in the identification and analysis of their problems. The inclusion of the rural poor people in contrast means that, there will be a better understanding of the problems, since they are the ones experiencing rural poverty. Thus, identified courses of actions will suit the problem being tackled.

According to Narayan (2000) within the rural people themselves, there are asymmetrical relationships which may affect in problem identification and analysis of their social problems. According to the study he carried out in Bangladesh, the poorest people in rural areas had little contribution in government initiated referenda, elections and opinion polls. This will then mean that, the rural policies formulated will be set to solve the plight of the well up rural people at the expense of the real poor people. Since the purpose of rural policies is to alleviate poverty in rural areas, if the formulated policies are not relevant in solving the plight of the poorest, we can say they are not relevant to rural areas. Power dynamics within the rural poor people also tend to affect the evaluation of the rural policies. If the only elite rural people participate during policy evaluation, it will mean that professional evaluators may be deceived to believe that the implemented project and programs were very successful while in reality the poor people will continue to suffer. With this in the future poor projects which may be full of dangers to the livelihoods of the poorest rural people will continue to be implemented. This means that, for rural policies to be successful there is need for professional policy makers to understand the power dynamics among different groups of the rural people. Then policy makers will then try to foster equal participation of the poorest groups in the rural areas.

Technologies also affect the effectiveness of assumption analysis in the rural policy process. Technological advancement influences the nature and progress of stakeholder interactions and sharing of information between actors. In the present day policy formulation, analysis and implementation can be effectively aided by the use of more technologically advanced methods like telephone or computer conferencing. (Harande, 2009) this ensures timely formulation and analysis of policy alternatives before the nature of the problem changes or is altered by the environment.  Lack of such technology in the policy process in contrast delays or in some cases lead to poor alternative analysis and alternative selection. This is because; in practise rural issues are very fluid and easily changed by the environmental factors. According to Brugha et al (2002) findings brought forward by researchers during the evaluation and analysis of the health policy to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria in the United States of America were being superseded by events. This is because during that period, information was manually collected through arranged meetings by the government and other data collection methods like surveying. In the past and in present day technologically backward societies, decisions were and are not timely because there is need for involvement in weeks of data gathering and bureaucratic decision making. With this, alternative policy strategies will be introduced to tackle the already changed problems. Thus, technological advancement helps in the effective selection, analysis and implementation of good policies to solve the right problem.

Global pressure can also contribute in the analysis, implementation and formulation of policy strategies. According to Hajer and Wagenaar(2003) there are new sources of politics where concrete changes of the practices of policy making and politics are influenced by global decisions as well as domestic actions.  In this case, experience from overseas rural areas can be applied in solving local rural development problems. Rural problems are identified at international level and the problem shared as a global concern. Individual countries will then shape their rural policies to fit the interests of the global village. Multilateral and bilateral organisations engage in researches in the Third World rural areas and then influence rural policies in the countries with rural policies. Rural policies in the Third World countries are a reaction to the internationally set standards through the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). According to Hanyani-Mlambo (2002) in Zimbabwe for instance the study on the pluralistic Agricultural extension paid allegiance to the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) which is an international body formulated to solve the problem of poverty and starvation. That research was funded by the governments of Finland and Norway. This means that in some cases problem analysis and identification in this present day world is influenced by global pressure. All these activities are targeted at solving the rural poverty in the Third World rural areas. This then means that the choice and prioritisation of policy issues can also be directed by global international pressure.

Global international pressure can also create negative implications to the local rural policy processes. This is because in some cases, the formulation, adoption and analysis of policies can be just done as a need to satisfy the bilateral and multilateral organisations. This is mainly done because of the call for papers done by most donor organisations and countries. Some bilateral and multilateral organisations like SIDA (Swedish International Development Agency, and the USAID can call for governments and NGOs to submit proposals which suits their set goals (Sabatier, 1999). These policies may however be alien to the local environment and culture. This means that in this case governments and NGOs can engage in risky and less relevant policies without necessarily making through analysis of the policy environment but occupied by the need to get international funding. Mkandawire (1999) cited NGOs in Malawi which tried to implement piggery projects in a bid to solve the problem of food shortages. These projects were however turned down by the rural people since they were not in tandem with the local religion. It is also interesting to note that globally pressurised rural policies are flawed in that authorities in most cases falsify evaluations in order to get more funding. With this it is found that, international pressure can disturb local assumption analysis in rural policies and lead to the implementation of risky policies.

Harande (2005) points that, for rural policy to be successful and relevant there is need for reliable and accurate supply of information to the rural poor people. Reliable and accurate information makes the rural poor people aware of their contingencies and therefore contribute positively in the formulation, adoption and the setting of goals in the policy process. Uninformed and ignorant rural people also find it very difficult to follow the guidelines in implementing the projects and programs supporting a certain given policy. The ideal rural policy should include the rural people in the formulation, analysis, choosing the best alternative courses of action and policy evaluation, without reliable and accurate information concerning the national policies, the rural poor will hardly participate in the policy implementation exercise. According to Diso (2005) in Nigeria, the state information system is unreliable to an extent that, even serious information like disseminating agricultural research results is often subtly reduced to persuasive to persuasive propaganda to make people appreciate their state as benevolent enough to make them prospering. With this, people will hardly participate in the decision making and adoption of suitable and best alternative courses of action in the rural policy processes. Thus for rural policies to be successful, there is need for dissemination of reliable policy information in rural areas.

Linked to that, is the extent of literacy among the recipients of policy packages. In this case the rural poor people who happens to be the immediate beneficiaries of development policies. Obasanjo and Mabogunje (1991) indicate that for the rural people to exercise their effective responsibility for development they must be literate and have necessary resources and adequate revenue allocation. This is because, for rural people to be effective in the analysis of assumptions on different stages of the policy cycle they must be in a position to explicitly qualify and quantify their experiences. During the goal setting exercise in a literate population, quantification of the likely outcomes will be a bit easier as compared to carrying out the exercise in an illiterate rural community. If cost benefit-analysis is being carried where necessary comparing and contrasting two or more courses of actions will be a bit more effective in a literate society than an illiterate one. When it comes to monitoring and evaluation of the policy strategies literate rural communities are likely to provide reliable and accurate data. This minimises risk of carrying out unprofitable courses of action during the policy process. In illiterate communities in contrast there is a high tendency of falsifying data because of ignorance. With this future projects to support the policy will be more likely to be more flawed in illiterate communities as compared to literate ones.    

The health of rural policy process is also directly or indirectly affected by the availability of financial resources. According to Sullivan (1990) economics is one of the variables capturing the dynamics shaping the future of rural communities and interdependencies among those communities. Financial resources allow the government, private sector civic society organisations and professional planners to collect as much data as possible. That data will then be used to analyse the developmental problems affecting rural poor people. Stakeholder analysis and general collection of data can only be done effectively if there are reliable financial resources. This is because for rural information to be collected properly there is need for reliable supply of financial resources to cater for long distance travelling expenses into the poor rural areas. Chambers (1983) noted that, during the policy evaluation exercise in India, professionals engage in what he called tarmac bias. This is when policy or project evaluation is carried out in places near the main road only. In this case they only opt for near road accessible areas at the expense of the most remote parts of the countryside. Moreover problem analysis is done with the people nearer to the main road and better off people who can easily access places where activities like surveys, policy round tables, and consultation by government agencies are carried. With this, formulated policies hardly meet the needs and expectations of the real rural poor people. This is because without reliable financial resources the real poor rural people hardly contribute in the policy process.

Dukeshire and Thurlow (2002) noted that effective policy is facilitated by expensive methods of data gathering and awareness methods which include legislative hearings, policy round table, campaigns, consultations and engagement of groups and citizens by the government.  All these necessitate effective selection of courses of action. More so, with reliable financial sources, governments, planners and rural dwellers can be comfortable in choosing expensive courses of action and policies. Unlike policies which are supported by reliable sources of financial institutions, financially stable societies in contrast plan and implement programs and projects which suit their shrinking budgets. In most cases however, relevant courses of action requires more financial resources. Thus, policies formulated in financially stable environments are likely to be reliable and relevant in solving rural poverty.

In conclusion, rural poverty is a multifaceted phenomenon which cannot be solved by the voices of government officials and their private organisations counterparts. Rural poverty can only be solved when the development practitioners make thorough analysis of the resources available for the formulation, analysis and implementation of the rural policies. Need is there for professionals to make sure that they mutually cooperate with the rural people during executing each and every stage of the policy process. In doing so there is also need for the professionals to study the power dynamics within the rural people themselves so as to foster equal participation of them in the policy process. Without taking that into consideration, the problem of unequal development between the rural and metropolitan areas will continue, the gap between the rural poor and the rural elites will continue. There is need for the development of policies which meet the interests of the real poorest rural people.

Reference

Anderson, J et al (1984) Public Policy and Politics in America. California; Brooks/Code Publishing Company

Brugha, R et al (2002) Viewpoint: Management of Malaria-Working with the private sector. Onlinelibrary.wiley.com/microbiology/&virology/infectiousdiseases. Tropical medicine aid International Health/Vol 4 issue 5

Burke, A (2003) Project Management, Planning and Control Techniques 4^th Edition. London: Amazon Company

Chambers, R (1983) Rural Development, Putting the Last First. London: Longman

Diso, L.I (2005) Information, Production, Transfer and delivery: Mass Information work and television journalism dilemma in Nigeria. The International Information and Library Review 3:285-294

Dukeshire, S and Thurlow, J (2002) A Brief Guide to Understanding Policy Development, Rural Communities Impacting Policy Project. wwruralnovascotia.ca

Hajer, M.A and Wagenaar, H (2003) Deliberative Policy Analysis. Understanding Governance in the Network Society. New York: Cambridge University Press

Hanyani-Mlambo, B.T (2002) Strengthening the Pluralistic Agricultural Extension Systems, A Zimbabwean Case Study. Harare: Agricultural Research Information Services for Rural

Harande, Y.I (2009) Information Services for Rural Community Development in Nigeria. Kano: Bayero University Press

Mkandawire, R (1999) Agriculture and Rural Development in Malawi. The Role of  Policy Process. Geneva: International Labour Organization

Munzara, M.A and Gwaze, F (2006) Awareness Raising. Regional Conference on Agricultural Trade Policy

Narayan, D (2000) Voices of the Poor. Can Anyone Any one Hear Us .New York: Oxford University Press

Obasanjo, O and Mabogunje, A (1991) Elements of Development .Lagos: Africa Leadership 143

Sabatier, L (1991) Theories of Policy Process. Boulder: Westview Press

Sullivan, P (1990) Financial Intervention as a Rural Development Strategy. An Overview. Washington DC: USDA ERS AGES 9070:1-20  

 

Major economic roots of civil conflicts and possible ways of mitigating these

There is no single explanation or model for civil conflicts across the globe rather; multiple competing and modified models exist. Civil wars have gained increasing attention from academics and policymakers alike in recent years. This concern is understandable since civil conflict is the source of immense human suffering.It is estimated that civil wars have resulted in three times as many deaths as wars between states since World War II. A major locus for civil wars in recent years has been Sub-Saharan Africa, where twenty-nine of forty-three countries suffered from civil conflict during the 1980s and 1990s. In the median Sub-Saharan African country, hundreds of thousands of people were displaced from their homes as a consequence of civil war during this period. There is a growing body of research that highlights the association between economic conditions and civil conflict. Some of the major economic roots of civil conflicts include unequal distribution of resources, land disputes, poverty, corruption, greed  and unemployment among a host of other causes.

Precarious economic welfare ignites civil conflict; causing insecurity and growing dissatisfaction among the people against existing governments. Political instability and the risk of conflict increase. This encourages emigration of highly skilled and educated labour and the flight of capital making it even more difficult to reverse the process of economic decline. The vicious circle of poverty and stagnation continues and with it the likelihood of conflict.

According Collier (2003) a civil war is classified as an internal conflict with at least one thousand battle-related deaths. Fortna (2008) cited that a civil war should represent a challenge to the sovereignty of internationally recognized state, occur within recognize boundary of the state, recognize the state as one of the principal combatants and lastly the rebel were should be able to mount an organized military opposition were to inflict significant casualties to the state.

The risk of civil war will be particularly high if there is a sudden sharp fall in output, employment and income, and no clear sign that the country will be able to reverse it in the foreseeable future. The costs of economic stagnation have “a dramatic causal impact on the likelihood of civil war.” Moreover, this is not confined to low-income countries though they are, of course, particularly vulnerable because “the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer more democratic or more ethnically diverse countries”. For instance, sharp falls in income and large increases in unemployment preceded civil wars in Sierra Leone, Nigeria and Indonesia. The same happened in Yugoslavia following the liberal reforms in 1989. The economy declined by 15-20 per cent and the rate of unemployment in some regions reached 40 per cent of the adult population “fuelling social unrest.” The difference between these four states was that in Yugoslavia income per capita was two or three times the average for civil war countries and it had high levels of education as well as a public health service that was unusually comprehensive for the country’s level of industrialization. Two years later the first of the Yugoslav civil wars broke out.

Impoverishment and inequality has increased over the last thirty years worldwide to the extent that governments have become either unable or unwilling to compensate for this through income transfers thus causing civil war. The danger is that nothing is done to reverse this situation; these trends will create exactly the conditions in which people, especially inhabitants of the poorest countries, can easily become caught in the vicious circle of relative or absolute impoverishment, despair and hate.  The low level of development limits the capacity of a country to produce the volume of output required to satisfy the needs and aspirations of its population.Consequently, employment opportunities are also limited so that unemployment is invariably high and it increases the inequality.

Corruption plays an important role in igniting civil wars. Corrupt governments are usually incapable of delivering public services to the people. Closely linked to corruption are nepotism, ethnicism and tribalism resulting into unequal participation in the socio-economic and political space of a country. These factors can be perfect ingredients to ignite civil wars. According to the Sierra Leone Human Rights Commission(2008), bad governance, endemic corruption and the denial of human rights together with their attendant consequences made the Sierra Leone civil conflict inevitable‖. According to a Monograph article (2001) Kabila failed to reverse corruption, mismanagement and self-enrichment that had characterised Mobutu’s government hence this led to the DRC conflict of 1997. Campell (1999) cited that Congolese Democratic Movement (CDM) Kabila’s mass killings, arbitrary violence, tribalism, nepotism and corruption. Recently Mubarak and Morsi were removed by coups in Egypt because of a corrupt system that failed to provide ‘Bread, Freedom and Social equality’ as symbolised in the slogans that were chanted at Tahir Square (Brown 2013).

According Mwanika (2010) natural resources can also be connected to the acquisition, use, and proliferation of small arms and light weapons, a situation that has exploited the negative opportunities provided by globalisation. In this case, natural resources have provided a parallel political economy for fuelling wars and conflicts. Mineral Resources such as diamonds has been known to have sustained wars in various African countries like Sierra Leone and Angola. Rebels or the governments have been accused to plunder minerals to fund civil wars through exchanging the precious minerals for military weapons. Roberts (2003) noted that United Nation's Fowler Report cited that The United Nations estimated Angolans made between three and four billion dollars through the diamond trade between 1992 and 1998 despite sanctions and trade restriction and diamond firms like  De Beers have openly acknowledges spending $500 million on legal and illegal Angolan diamonds in 1992 alone while people like Joe De Deker, a former stockholder in De Beers, worked with the government of Zaire to supply military equipment to UNITA from 1993 to 1997. The Diplomatic handbook (2007) cited that it will be simplistic to attribute the Sierra civil war of  March 1991 to January 2002 to diamonds however diamonds played an important role in funding the war as well as creating allies like Muammar Gaddafi who had interests in diamonds who supplied weapons and training bases. Similarly Horovitz (2009) observed By late 1992, the Revolutionary United Front RUF (the rebels fighting against the All People‘s Congress (APC) occupied diamond-rich areas and began sending gems to their foreign patrons, in exchange for weapons and logistical support. Gudza (2007) observed that countries like Zimbabwe were motivated by diamonds to enter the Democratic Republic of Congo war on the side of Laurent Kabila an illegitimate leader. In Somalia Al Shaabab finance its war through selling ivory and it has been accused of killing more than ten thousand elephants each year. wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Shaabad (militia-group)

Some scholars like Collier subscribe to the greed and grievance discourse. This theory highlight that civil wars can be caused pure greed while grievances are used to a facade. According Collier (2006) argues that the financial vibility of rebel organization is a determinant factor in civil wars. He argues that factors inequality, a lack of democracy, and ethnic and religious divisions, had little systematic effect on causing conflicts. His argument uses groups that led Civil conflicts in Colombia like FARC which was able to employ 12,000 people through kidnapping and drugs. In contrast the Michigan Militia in USA failed to make an impact because it had no money to finance the war. The motivation of groups like FARC is greed than grievances.  The rebels usually target primary commodity exports, examples can be drawn from secceions thus the Katangan secession movement in Zaire targeted the

copper mining region; the Biafran secession movement targeted Nigerian oil producing region ; the Aceh secession movement in Indonesia took the oil-producing region with per capita GDP three times the national average; the successful Eritrean secession was a region with double the per capita income of the rest of Ethiopia (Collier 2003).

Possible ways of mitigating these stems from using an effective criterion for anticipating the likelihood of civil war is to consider whether the country has already suffered from a civil conflict. Indeed, half of the civil wars since World War II, and every civil war that began after 2003 have taken place in countries that had a previous civil war (Collier and Hoeffler, 2007; World Development Report, 2011). The recent report from the World Bank argues that international assistance focuses on recovery rather than prevention (World Development Report, 2011). The predominance of civil wars during the 80s and the 90s in the South has led international support to be targeted to ending civil conflicts. The aid received in post-conflict countries greatly exceeds the aid received in fragile states to prevent an escalation of violence. An illustration is West Africa during the 2000s. The World Bank reports that the aid to two post-conflict countries, Liberia in 2008 and Sierra Leone over the 2000-2003 period, was around US$415 per capita and US$186 per capita (each year) respectively. By contrast, aid for preventing conflict in Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, and Togo was only US$42 per capita. However, understanding the precise causes of civil war may help to apply adequate instruments to prevent them. There are some inexpensive interventions, such as state-society consultations even if financial assistance is often necessary to stop the rising of violence (World Development Report, 2011).

Economic Development

The main empirical result of the literature suggests that the best long-run conflict prevention strategy is economic development. A direct instrument for development is giving aid to poor countries. Aid has some positive effects in conflict prevention, in addition to the desired reduction of poverty. Collier and Hoeffler (2002) argue that aid has no systematic direct effect on the risk of conflict, but that it is beneficial nonetheless through its effect on growth.  However, Collier et al. (2004) show that the gain is modest relative to the cost of the aid and they argue in consequence that conflict reduction should not be the core rationale for aid to low-income countries. An essential factor of long-run development is the quality of institutions (Acemoglu et al. 2001). The World Bank report argues that institutions for security, justice and jobs should first be consolidated to prevent repeated cycles of violence. To have any chance of success, post-conflict strategies must, therefore, concentrate from the start on institutional changes and policies that promote reconciliation, reconstruction and reduction in absolute poverty and income insecurity.

Reconciliation

The effort to achieve reconciliation of the warring factions is therefore of critical importance, and its success will depend on how the authorities deal with four major problems, each of them more serious after the conflict than before. First, as all internal conflicts result in atrocities against civilian populations as well as the combatants, the old grievances, resentments and animosities are likely to be felt even more intensely. The war may also change the ethnic balance of the population in a region or country, as large numbers of people are forced to flee their homes. The minority will now feel even more insecure than before, a fact that the majority may exploit in order to ‘cleanse’ the ethnic or religious character of their region or country by making the minority’s life intolerable and forcing it to emigrate. Anticipating this, a Government genuinely determined to promote reconciliation will act promptly after the conflict to outlaw discrimination and threats against any group and will use – and be seen to use – the law enforcing agencies to implement the new laws. This is essential to demonstrate the determination of the authorities to break with the past by giving all those living on their territory a stake in the new order.

Reconstruction

“The reconstruction of physical infrastructure and the provision of social services are critical for the revival of economic activity and giving people a stake in the peace process”.ll

Although the scale of destruction inflicted by civil wars will vary from country to country, the effect can be devastating even in conflicts of relatively short duration. In addition to the costs (human, social and economic) mentioned earlier, shortage of food is a common problem. As a result, nutritional standards, which are inadequate in low-income countries even at the best of times, can fall to dangerously low levels. With many residential buildings badly damaged or destroyed, serious shortage of housing is another common problem. Much of the infrastructure and productive assets in agriculture and industry will also be destroyed, damaged or made obsolete during the conflict. The combined human and economic cost of the devastation can be staggering. For example, as a result of the genocide in 1994, GDP per capita in Rwanda is 25-30 per cent lower than it would have been without the conflict. During the conflict, 10 per cent of the population died and almost four times as many people fled to neighbouring countries. As a result of such heavy casualties, children have been left with the responsibility of looking after 85,000 of the country’s households. The level of poverty increased significantly, with 60 per cent of the population regarded in 2001 as poor and 42 per cent unable to meet basic food needs.Food, shelter, clothing and medical services must, therefore, be given priority in postconflict countries in order to provide people with the basic needs necessary for survival.

Create employment

The first goal is to achieve high levels of employment and job security in order to give

everyone a stake in their country’s future so that people do not feel useless, not wanted or live in fear of the future. This was judged in the 1940s to be so important that it was enshrined in the United Nations Charter. The second goal aims at sustaining the rate of growth required to maintain high levels of employment and job security in the long run. The third goal is to keep prices stable so that the rate of inflation does not make it impossible to achieve the other objectives. The fourth goal is to ensure that the gains from economic progress are distributed in a way that is widely regarded as fair and, also, makes sure that nobody is allowed to exist below a socially acceptable standard of living. The fifth goal is a sustainable external balance (on the current and long-term capital accounts) to enable the country to preserve its economic sovereignty, thus allowing it to pursue the other four goals thereby mitigating civil war.

Fighting Corruption

Self aggrandisement and greed erodes the moral fibre of nations and it destroys the economies of the nations. It creates inequality and intolerable poverty that causes the discontent to take arms against governments. To ensure peace governments needs to adopt systems that promote accountability and transparency. Highly punitive legislation needs to be adopted to punish offenders this will deter potential offenders.

Promotion of democracy will create equitable economic growth that will attract foreign direct investments that will lead to employment and improve livelihoods. Democracy and inclusive political systems needs to be embraced. According Tobbala (2013) democratic governance is known as a combination of both the values of democracy through a process of governance that involves interaction among actors representing the State, civil society and the private sector. The process of governance is therefore based on universally accepted principles ensuring the balance of power, checks and balances. The principles mainly include: participation, accountability, and transparency, rule of law, separation of powers, access to justice, subsidiarity, equality and freedom of the press. These principles are needed to ensure that democratic governance takes root. Militarism and repressive laws needs to be curtailed. Civil societies should work hand in glove with governments to help in coming up with democratic systems that ensures that citizens has full and active participation in the government.

International and Regional bodies like UN and AU should promote and enforce good governance among member states to ensure that there is no abuse of power. The bodies can then take to task leaders who are defiant to its dictates. Bad governance in most cases results in inequalities when sharing resources.

References

Roberts, Janine (2003). Glitter & Greed: The Secret World of the Diamond Empire. , New York ,The Disinformation Company Ltd pp.223–224

Horovitz, S. (2009) ‘Sierra Leone: interaction between international and national responses to the mass atrocities’ in Domac, vol 3, December.

The Human Rights Commission of Sierra Leone, ‗First Annual Report on the State of Human Rights in Sierra Leone 2007‘ (March 2008)

Campbell H. (1999), “Democratisation, Citizenship and peace in Congo”, in M. Baregu, Crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Harare, Sapes books,

Tobbala, S. (2012). Local Governance and Democratization: The Roadmap for a Responsive Accountable Egypt, Cairo University, Faculty of Economics and Political Science – FEPS.

Gudza, T. (2007). Zimbabwe’s print media coverage of the country’s military involvement in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 1998-2002: The case of The Herald, The Sunday Mail, The Financial Gazette and The Zimbabwe Independent, Honours Dissertation, University of Zimbabwe, 2007.

Fortna. V, (2008), Peacekeeping and the peacekept: Data on peacekeeping in civil wars 1989-2004 ,New York, Columbia University.

www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Shaabad (militia-group)  accessed 14/4/2014